No party at the Kremlin tonight

The next president of the USA (Wikimedia)

While it may be satisfying for Putin to watch most of the West in shock about the outcome of the US election, Donald Trump will make things not easier, but a lot more complicated for the Russian leadership.

First, think about the narrative that "democracy doesn't work anywhere", which is important for Russian domestic policy. Of course, the US democracy just made a madman future president, but this happened against the interests of almost all media, political and economic elites in the US. This "disruptive power from below" is probably not what the Kremlin wants Russians to acknowledge (it will be interesting to see how the Kremlin spins the results over the next days).

Second, think about the narrative of "Russia against the morally corrupted West" with its political correctness and disregard for "traditional family values". The Kremlin positioned Russia as the refuge for traditionalists - now the future US president has the same agenda.

Third, if Trump actually acts on his promises of economic isolationism, this is bad news for the world economy, which affects Russia primarily through falling resource prices (especially oil, which is down today).

Fourth, and most importantly: Foreign policy. The praise that Putin and Trump had for each other before the election was more of a provocation to the (old) US leadership than the foundation of a long-lasting friendship. All of Putin's foreign policy successes in the last years were based on the element of surprise. Winning by surprising is a good strategy only if your opponent is predictable. This is another monopoly the Kremlin lost tonight: Who is the most unpredictable, irrational world leader now? History shows that populists don't retreat from international conflicts, but rather cause them. Russia's foreign policy of the past years was comfortable with Obama's appeasement. Trump promised to be a strongman who doesn't back down. This contradicts his supposed foreign policy plans. However, it is more likely for his foreign policy ideas to change than for his ego.

In many ways the Kremlin and the (old) West are sitting in the same boat now.